Showing posts with label Issue: Journal of Finance. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Issue: Journal of Finance. Show all posts

Thursday, February 14, 2019

Can Book-to-Market, Size and Momentum be Extra Risk Factors...Al-Mwalla (2012)

The authors are interested to know whether the Fama-French 3-factor model (i.e., market, size, value factors) or the 4-factor model (i.e., with momentum added) is better at explaining the 1999 - 2010 returns for stocks of the Amman Stock Exchange in Jordan.

As was done in prior studies, the authors sorted companies into thirds by market capitalization and by book-to-market ratios, and formed 9 equal-weighted portfolios by size and value/growth (e.g., large-growth, medium-growth, small-growth, and so on).  They find their results to be consistent with prior studies that found smaller companies have higher returns than big companies, and value stocks have higher monthly returns than growth stocks.

Next, the authors formed a regression of the 4-factor model for all securities in their sample over the same time period.  They find the High-minus-Low factor (i.e., Value vs Growth) is the only factor to be statistically significant; all of the other factors' coefficients were not statistically different from zero.

Next, the authors formed a regression of the 3-factor model over the 9 portfolios that were discussed before.  They find the market factor to be significant across all portfolios, the Small-minus-Big factor to be significant across all portfolios except the medium sized, and the High-minus-Low factor to be significant across 5 of the 9 portfolios in no discernible pattern.  The R-squared ranges from 18% to 83%; the regressions of the larger companies and the growth companies tend to have higher R-squared values.  The intercept (i.e., alpha) is not statistically significant in 8 of the 9 portfolios.  So we might say that the 3-factor model for the large-sized and growth companies tend to do a pretty good job of explaining the variation in returns.

Finally, the authors form another regression of the 4-factor model over the same 9 portfolios.  The authors find that adding the momentum factor to the regression does not improve the explanatory power of the regression.  The previous 3 factors' coefficients remain substantially unchanged in magnitude and significance.  Only 3 of the 9 portfolios boast a significant momentum factor coefficient.  Also, the R-squareds did not significantly improve.  So we might conclude that the 4-factor model does not do a better job than the 3-factor model at explaining the source of variation in returns for stocks in the Amman Stock Exchange over the 1999 - 2010 period.




Al-Mwalla, M. (2012). Can Book-to-Market, Size and Momentum be Extra Risk Factors that Explain the Stocks Rate Of Return?: Evidence from Emerging Market. Journal of Finance, Accounting & Management, 3(2), 42–57.

Wednesday, November 28, 2018

International Momentum Strategies (Part 2)

An academic paper read by Sawyer Investment Management Company regarding the performance of momentum strategies in international equity markets. (Part 2)




Abstract:
International equity markets exhibit medium-term return continuation. Between 1980 and 1995 an internationally diversified portfolio of past medium-term Winners outperforms a portfolio of medium-term Losers after correcting for risk by more than 1 percent per month. Return continuation is present in all twelve sample countries and lasts on average for about one year. Return continuation is negatively related to firm size, but is not limited to small firms. The international momentum returns are correlated with those of the United States which suggests that exposure to a common factor may drive the profitability of momentum strategies.

Citation:
ROUWENHORST, K. G. (1998). International Momentum Strategies. Journal of Finance, 53(1), 267–284.

Link to Paper:
http://landryinvest.ca/documents/articles/rouwenhorst_momentum_strategies.pdf

About Sawyer Investment Management Company:
SIMCO is a Texas-registered Investment Adviser with its principal place of business in Dallas, Texas. It was formed on January 1, 2015 and is wholly owned by Ryan Sawyer, who is a CFA Charterholder and a Certified Public Accountant.

SIMCO specializes in the construction of equity portfolios, and is therefore an ideal resource for long-term investors. The firm goes through a rigorous process for selecting each and every holding in the portfolio. Rooted in the empirical research of academia, the portfolios are generally characterized as large-cap value momentum. For more information about how the portfolios are managed, see our website.

www.sawyerinvestment.com
https://www.facebook.com/Sawyer-Investment-Management-Company-1588110057913467/
https://twitter.com/SawyerInvest
https://sawyerinvestment.blogspot.com/

Tuesday, November 27, 2018

International Momentum Strategies (Part 1)

An academic paper read by Sawyer Investment Management Company regarding the performance of momentum strategies in international equity markets. 


Abstract:
International equity markets exhibit medium-term return continuation. Between 1980 and 1995 an internationally diversified portfolio of past medium-term Winners outperforms a portfolio of medium-term Losers after correcting for risk by more than 1 percent per month. Return continuation is present in all twelve sample countries and lasts on average for about one year. Return continuation is negatively related to firm size, but is not limited to small firms. The international momentum returns are correlated with those of the United States which suggests that exposure to a common factor may drive the profitability of momentum strategies.

Citation:
ROUWENHORST, K. G. (1998). International Momentum Strategies. Journal of Finance, 53(1), 267–284.

Link to Paper:
http://landryinvest.ca/documents/articles/rouwenhorst_momentum_strategies.pdf

About Sawyer Investment Management Company:
SIMCO is a Texas-registered Investment Adviser with its principal place of business in Dallas, Texas. It was formed on January 1, 2015 and is wholly owned by Ryan Sawyer, who is a CFA Charterholder and a Certified Public Accountant.

SIMCO specializes in the construction of equity portfolios, and is therefore an ideal resource for long-term investors. The firm goes through a rigorous process for selecting each and every holding in the portfolio. Rooted in the empirical research of academia, the portfolios are generally characterized as large-cap value momentum. For more information about how the portfolios are managed, see our website.

www.sawyerinvestment.com
https://www.facebook.com/Sawyer-Investment-Management-Company-1588110057913467/
https://twitter.com/SawyerInvest
https://sawyerinvestment.blogspot.com/

Friday, November 23, 2018

Momentum Strategies (Part 2)

An academic paper read by Sawyer Investment Management Company regarding the effects of price momentum and earnings momentum on stock returns (Part 2)

Abstract:
We examine whether the predictability of future returns from past returns is due to the market's underreaction to information, in particular to past earnings news. Past return and past earnings surprise each predict large drifts in future returns after controlling for the other. Market risk, size, and book-to-market effects do not explain the drifts. There is little evidence of subsequent reversals in the returns of stocks with high price and earnings momentum. Security analysts' earnings forecasts also respond sluggishly to past news, especially in the case of stocks with the worst past performance. The results suggest a market that responds only gradually to new information.

Citation:
Chan, L. K. C., Jegadeesh, N., & Lakonishok, J. (1996). Momentum Strategies. Journal of Finance, 51(5), 1681–1713.

Link to Paper:
https://kantakji.com/media/174618/file1391.pdf

About Sawyer Investment Management Company:
SIMCO is a Texas-registered Investment Adviser with its principal place of business in Dallas, Texas. It was formed on January 1, 2015 and is wholly owned by Ryan Sawyer, who is a CFA Charterholder and a Certified Public Accountant.

SIMCO specializes in the construction of equity portfolios, and is therefore an ideal resource for long-term investors. The firm goes through a rigorous process for selecting each and every holding in the portfolio. Rooted in the empirical research of academia, the portfolios are generally characterized as large-cap value momentum. For more information about how the portfolios are managed, see our website.

www.sawyerinvestment.com
https://www.facebook.com/Sawyer-Investment-Management-Company-1588110057913467/
https://twitter.com/SawyerInvest
https://sawyerinvestment.blogspot.com/

Thursday, November 22, 2018

Momentum Strategies

An academic paper read by Sawyer Investment Management Company regarding the effects of price momentum and earnings momentum on stock returns.  (Part 1)




 Abstract:
We examine whether the predictability of future returns from past returns is due to the market's underreaction to information, in particular to past earnings news. Past return and past earnings surprise each predict large drifts in future returns after controlling for the other. Market risk, size, and book-to-market effects do not explain the drifts. There is little evidence of subsequent reversals in the returns of stocks with high price and earnings momentum. Security analysts' earnings forecasts also respond sluggishly to past news, especially in the case of stocks with the worst past performance. The results suggest a market that responds only gradually to new information.

Citation:
Chan, L. K. C., Jegadeesh, N., & Lakonishok, J. (1996). Momentum Strategies. Journal of Finance, 51(5), 1681–1713.

Link to Paper:
https://kantakji.com/media/174618/file1391.pdf

About Sawyer Investment Management Company:
SIMCO is a Texas-registered Investment Adviser with its principal place of business in Dallas, Texas. It was formed on January 1, 2015 and is wholly owned by Ryan Sawyer, who is a CFA Charterholder and a Certified Public Accountant.

SIMCO specializes in the construction of equity portfolios, and is therefore an ideal resource for long-term investors. The firm goes through a rigorous process for selecting each and every holding in the portfolio. Rooted in the empirical research of academia, the portfolios are generally characterized as large-cap value momentum. For more information about how the portfolios are managed, see our website.

www.sawyerinvestment.com
https://www.facebook.com/Sawyer-Investment-Management-Company-1588110057913467/
https://twitter.com/SawyerInvest
https://sawyerinvestment.blogspot.com/

Wednesday, November 21, 2018

Profitability of Momentum Strategies: An Evaluation of Alternative Explanations (Part 2)

An academic paper read by Sawyer Investment Management Company regarding the source of momentum returns. (Part 2)

Abstract:
This paper evaluates various explanations for the profitability of momentum strategies documented in Jegadeesh and Titman (1993). The evidence indicates that momentum profits have continued in the 1990s, suggesting that the original results were not a product of data snooping bias. The paper also examines the predictions of recent behavioral models that propose that momentum profits are due to delayed overreactions that are eventually reversed. Our evidence provides support for the behavioral models, but this support should be tempered with caution.

Citation:
Jegadeesh, N., & Titman, S. (2001). Profitability of Momentum Strategies: An Evaluation of Alternative Explanations. Journal of Finance, 56(2), 699–720.

Link to Paper:
http://www.trendrating.com/wp-content/uploads/white-papers/profitability_of_momentum_strategies.pdf

About Sawyer Investment Management Company:
SIMCO is a Texas-registered Investment Adviser with its principal place of business in Dallas, Texas. It was formed on January 1, 2015 and is wholly owned by Ryan Sawyer, who is a CFA Charterholder and a Certified Public Accountant.

SIMCO specializes in the construction of equity portfolios, and is therefore an ideal resource for long-term investors. The firm goes through a rigorous process for selecting each and every holding in the portfolio. Rooted in the empirical research of academia, the portfolios are generally characterized as large-cap value momentum. For more information about how the portfolios are managed, see our website.

www.sawyerinvestment.com
https://www.facebook.com/Sawyer-Investment-Management-Company-1588110057913467/
https://twitter.com/SawyerInvest
https://sawyerinvestment.blogspot.com/

Tuesday, November 20, 2018

Profitability of Momentum Strategies: An Evaluation of Alternative Explanations

An academic paper read by Sawyer Investment Management Company regarding the source of momentum returns.



Abstract:
This paper evaluates various explanations for the profitability of momentum strategies documented in Jegadeesh and Titman (1993). The evidence indicates that momentum profits have continued in the 1990s, suggesting that the original results were not a product of data snooping bias. The paper also examines the predictions of recent behavioral models that propose that momentum profits are due to delayed overreactions that are eventually reversed. Our evidence provides support for the behavioral models, but this support should be tempered with caution.

Citation:
Jegadeesh, N., & Titman, S. (2001). Profitability of Momentum Strategies: An Evaluation of Alternative Explanations. Journal of Finance, 56(2), 699–720.

Link to Paper: http://www.trendrating.com/wp-content...

About Sawyer Investment Management Company:
SIMCO is a Texas-registered Investment Adviser with its principal place of business in Dallas, Texas. It was formed on January 1, 2015 and is wholly owned by Ryan Sawyer, who is a CFA Charterholder and a Certified Public Accountant. SIMCO specializes in the construction of equity portfolios, and is therefore an ideal resource for long-term investors. The firm goes through a rigorous process for selecting each and every holding in the portfolio. Rooted in the empirical research of academia, the portfolios are generally characterized as large-cap value momentum. For more information about how the portfolios are managed, see our website.

www.sawyerinvestment.com 
https://www.facebook.com/Sawyer-Inves...
https://twitter.com/SawyerInvest

Monday, November 19, 2018

Returns to Buying Winners and Selling Losers: Implications for Stock Market Efficiency (Part 2)

An academic paper summarized by Sawyer Investment Management Company regarding the abnormal returns attributable to owning momentum stocks.



Abstract: This paper documents that strategies which buy stocks that have performed well in the past and sell stocks that have performed poorly in the past generate significant positive returns over 3- to 12-month holding periods. We find that the profitability of these strategies are not due to their systematic risk or to delayed stock price reactions to common factors. However, part of the abnormal returns generated in the first year after portfolio formation dissipates in the following two years. A similar pattern of returns around the earnings announcements of past winners and losers is also documented.

Citation: Jegadeesh, N., & Titman, S. (1993). Returns to Buying Winners and Selling Losers: Implications for Stock Market Efficiency. Journal of Finance, 48(1), 65–91.

Link to Paper: http://www.business.unr.edu/faculty/liuc/files/BADM742/Jegadeesh_Titman_1993.pdf

About Sawyer Investment Management Company: SIMCO is a Texas-registered Investment Adviser with its principal place of business in Dallas, Texas. It was formed on January 1, 2015 and is wholly owned by Ryan Sawyer, who is a CFA Charterholder and a Certified Public Accountant.

SIMCO specializes in the construction of equity portfolios, and is therefore an ideal resource for long-term investors. The firm goes through a rigorous process for selecting each and every holding in the portfolio. Rooted in the empirical research of academia, the portfolios are generally characterized as large-cap value momentum. For more information about how the portfolios are managed, see our website.

www.sawyerinvestement.com 
https://www.facebook.com/Sawyer-Investment-Management-Company-1588110057913467/
https://twitter.com/SawyerInvest
https://sawyerinvestment.blogspot.com/

Sunday, November 18, 2018

Returns to Buying Winners and Selling Losers: Implications for Stock Market Efficiency (Part 1)

Buying past winners and selling past losers tends to earn abnormal profits over holding periods less than a year.

 
Jegadeesh, N., & Titman, S. (1993). Returns to Buying Winners and Selling Losers: Implications for Stock Market Efficiency. Journal of Finance, 48(1), 65–91.








Sunday, November 11, 2018

On Persistence in Mutual Fund Performance

The author starts by summarizing the prior research of momentum, especially the 1-year momentum strategy of Jegadeesh and Titman; however, the author notes that his study finds those excess momentum returns are consumed by mutual fund fees and loads, and may even be just a consequence of portfolios having larger weights in momentum stocks as they rise.

The author used a database of 1,862 diversified equity mutual funds (excluding sector, international, and balanced funds) over the period 1962 - 1993; importantly, the database includes defunct funds so as to mitigate survivor bias. 

The author introduces his 4-factor model, which includes the volatility, size, and value characteristics of Fama/French's 3-factor model, and adds 1 factor for the momentum anomaly.  He then runs a regression on these factors, showing that the addition of momentum as a factor significantly improves the fit of the equations.  In additional tests, he shows that pricing errors based on the equation are significantly reduced when using the 4-factor model instead of the 3-factor model or the CAPM model.

The author then forms portfolios of mutual funds and ranks their performance into deciles and calculates the betas.  In all deciles, the 4 factors explain more than 89% of the variation in returns; size and momentum seem to be the deciding factor; and the factor proxy and value factors seem to have the same effect across all deciles (the factor proxy explaining the majority of the variation in returns, and the value factor explaining none).

The author then dives deeper into the mutual fund performance, noting that in most cases one year's losers become the next year's winners and vise versa.  Also, new funds may have returns significantly different than the mean, but they eventually fall in line with the averages, in a normal distribution. 

The author then ranked mutual funds by momentum, and found that momentum funds actually underperform contrarian funds and typically have higher turnover and fees which adds to the underperformance.  He contributes high performance of momentum portfolios to holding the prior year's winning stocks by chance.

The author then uses his 4-factor regression to rank estimated returns into deciles; as would be expected, top decile portfolios earned the highest excess returns and decreased with each decile.  The most significant contributions to return were the size and market proxy factor; value and momentum were negligible.  Also, the top decile portfolio returns seem to persist over the next 5 years.

The author ends with 3 suggestions for mutual fund investors: 1.  avoid funds with persistently poor performance, 2. past year winners typically have higher than average returns the next year, but not thereafter, and 3. expenses such as management fees, load fees, and turnover all have a significant negative effect on performance.


Carhart, M.M. (1997). On Persistence in Mutual Fund Performance. The Journal of Finance, 52(1), 57–82.

Tuesday, October 30, 2018

The Reaction of Stock Prices to Unanticipated Changes in Money

The authors first summarize the previous research; some of which was in support of money supply changes causing stock prices, and others rejecting that notion in support of the Efficient Market Hypothesis.  They also note more recent research that showed unanticipated changes in money supply caused a drop in stock prices; they cite several papers that attribute this effect to increased money supply causing investors to expect increased inflation, which depresses stock prices for a number of reasons (e.g., decreased real after-tax earnings, the opportunity cost of owning inflation linked assets like real estate and commodities, mistakes in comparing real returns to nominal returns, or Federal Reserve reactions and counter-measures such as raising interest rates).

The authors created a regression that included the change in stock prices as the dependent variable, and the actual minus expected change in the M1 as the independent variable.  To determine the expected change, they used the median expectation of about 60 money market participants in the weekly survey by Money Market Services.  They found that an unexpected increase in money supply of $1 billion usually caused a 0.7 fall in the stock price.  The regressions did, however, exhibit relatively small R^2s.

The authors consider several other questions related to this.  In particular, they find that stock price reactions to money supply changes become more volatile after the Fed beings its reserve-aggregate approach to monetary control; the stock price reactions to unanticipated changes in money supply is immediate; and stock prices do not move in anticipation of unexpected money supply changes.

PEARCE, D. K., & ROLEY, V. V. (1983). The Reaction of Stock Prices to Unanticipated Changes in Money: A Note. Journal of Finance, 38(4), 1323–1333.

Friday, October 26, 2018

Determinants of Common Stock Prices: A Time Series Analysis

The authors begin with a quick history of the studies around money supply and stock prices, noting that some researches have confirmed an unidirectional causation while others have rebuffed it.  At stake is whether the efficient market hypothesis holds (i.e., that only current and future estimates of money supply levels dictate stock prices); if future stock prices are caused by changes in the money supply, then one would reject the efficient market hypothesis and abnormal trading profits could be earned.

The authors use several determinants of stock prices (e.g., money supply, rate of change in money supply, corporate interest rate, and a measure of risk) to see if there is a causal relationship between them and stock prices.  They form a set of 4 equations for each determinant of stock prices.  The 1st equation includes current and lagged values of the determinant as independent variables; the 2nd equation includes, current, lagged, and future values of the determinant as independent variables; and the 3rd and 4th equations reverse the dependent and independent variables of equations 1 and 2.

Through these equations, the authors determine that there is a statistical relationship between the determinants and stock prices.  However, they find that there is no significant causality relationship running from money supply to stock prices; in fact, they find that current stock prices have an influence on future money supply.  Which is consistent with the efficient market hypothesis, whereby, future changes are anticipated by stock price movements.

KRAFT, J., & KRAFT, A. (1977). Determinants of Common Stock Prices: A Time Series Analysis. Journal of Finance, 32(2), 417–425.

Saturday, October 20, 2018

Money and Stock Prices: The Channels of Influence

The authors note several flaws with prior studies regarding the money supply and stock prices.  In particular, most of the recent studies only use the period after the Korean war, the studies only find an indirect relationship (e.g., through changes in interest rates or earnings), and they generally neglect the risk aspect which has been a tenant of investment research.

The authors go into explaining how the change in money supply affects all the components of the earnings discount model (i.e., the risk-free yield, earnings expectations, and the risk premium); ***note that Homa/Jaffee (1971) used a dividend discount model.***  The authors first discuss the "liquidity effect", whereby more money supply reduces the risk-free rate; they suggest that stock prices may be more responsive, in the short run, to changes in the money supply than bonds.  Next is the "earnings effect", whereby increases in the money supply create more demand for goods/services which translates into greater corporate profits; they suggest that changes in the money supply precede changes in stock prices which precede changes in earnings.  Finally, the authors discuss the "risk premium effect", whereby greater volatility of money supply levels may cause greater volatility in the economy requiring an increase in the risk premium resulting in a reduction in stock prices.

The authors perform two studies.  In the first study (the "partial effect"), the authors follow a paper by Keran (1971) to investigate how the money supply affects stock prices through an econometric model.  Keran had suggested through his results that money supply only has an indirect effect on stock prices; however, the authors split several of the variables into their components (e.g., split interest rates into real and inflation components, etc) and find that money supply has BOTH an indirect and direct effect on stock prices.  That is, the money supply growth variable is still significant after making the regression more granular.  They find that the inflation relationship is now insignificant and the money supply changes are now a significant determinant of stock price levels.

In the second study (the "total effect"), the authors make the independent variables be lagged money growth rate going back in 9 successive quarters; the dependent variable is either the risk free rate, corporate bond rate, S&P stock index, or dividend yield in 4 separate equations.  They find that the equation with the stock price level as the dependent variable has a larger R^2 than Keran's regression in the "partial effect".  The authors use this as further evidence that the money supply has a direct effect on stock prices (not just indirectly through interest rates), contradicting the conventional wisdom.

The authors then go on to regress an equation using data back to 1871 in an effort to support the volatility of the money supply causing higher risk premiums.

HAMBURGER, M. J., & KOCHIN, L. A. (1972). Money and Stock Prices: The Channels of Influence. Journal of Finance, 27(2), 231–249.

Friday, October 19, 2018

The Supply of Money and Common Stock Prices

The authors begin by suggesting a theoretical explanation for why changes in money supply and common stocks may be related.  They review the Dividend Discount Model, noting that investors would value a stock based on the rate and growth of dividends, the risk free rate, and an equity risk premium.  Their study attempts to show that changes in the money supply are positively related to the rate and growth of dividends (which increase a stock's value), and negatively related to the risk free rate and equity risk premium (which decrease a stock's value).  The authors suggest that a decrease in the money supply will cause an increase in interest rates, which would cause a decrease in expenditures, which will decrease sales, which will ultimately decrease profits and dividends.

The authors study the period January 1954 - April 1969 using the S&P 500 and M1.  They develop a regression equation that produces an R^2 of 0.968, but note a significant amount of serial correlation.  They then use a series of regressions to forecast 1-month ahead out-of-sample (1960-1969) stock prices based on money supply changes; in doing so, their regressions explain approximately 90% of the error, meaning a very good fit.

The authors then used a regression equation using factors of unemployment rate, inflation rate, and level of the US international reserve position in order to predict the growth in money supply, under the assumption that the Federal Reserve would makes its decisions based on the levels of these factors.  They find their regression reasonably explains the growth rate of money supply, but note that the errors may stem from the Federal Reserve's changes in policy throughout different regimes during the sample period.

The authors then use simulations to test the level of stock price forecasting regression under normal investment decision making conditions.  They give an investor 2 options to invest in: S&P 500 or 3-month treasury bills.  Based on the prediction of the regression equation, the investor chooses to go all-in on stocks or treasuries.  There are 6 simulations performed; 3 with margin and 3 without; and the 3 assuming perfect foresight, naive extrapolation, or regression prediction of the money supply variables that go into the regression equation. 

The results of the market test show that an investor could have used this regression to beat a buy-and hold strategy by 2% CAY on return and slightly reduce risk; although, this could have only been done by reasonably predicting (either through perfect foresight or regression) the money supply variables that go into the regression equation.  Naive extrapolation of the money supply variable underperformed the buy-and-hold strategy.

HOMA, K. E., & JAFFEE, D. M. (1971). The Supply of Money and Common Stock Prices. Journal of Finance, 26(5), 1045–1066.